"The Expressway is Congested..."

Here's another from the archives.

The Astolfi Theory - April 10, 1987

"The Expressway is Congested..."

"If you can't drive it, park it and milk it!" That's what a high school buddy of mine was heard to yell out the window during a traffic tie-up. I guess that was his way of dealing with something he didn't fully understand ... traffic. But then, who of us does understand why some days the traffic flows smoothly while on others it crawls at a snail's pace. (Actually, I've seem faster snails.)

Most people interpret this mystery of life according to their pre-established view of the universe. I had a friend during my college years (yes, they actually gave me a diploma) who commuted to Boston University every day. He was convinced that everything in the universe was somehow connected to everything else, and that all things just came together the way they were destined to. A very similar concept to that of 'karma' that was big in the sixties-seventies when rock musicians bandied the word about. He figured since everything was connected, he could catch a glimpse of what the future had in store for him by observing the present. The crystal ball that he felt was best, or at least unavoidable, was stop lights. Yes, stop lights. It went like this: green lights were a good sign and red lights were bad, with yellow being neutral. If more lights were red than green, it would be a bad day, and the inverse was true for green lights over red lights. Well, It never did much for me, but the theory seemed to make him a little more well adjusted.

I have another friend who is convinced that if all the factors affecting traffic flow were figured out, then an equation could be constructed that would allow you to know how long it would take to get to work on any given day. I must say that I had my doubts about at least the practicality of this approach, if not the theory.

But, this is where fact meets fiction. At a recent gathering, I idly mentioned this concept, and much to my surprise, I was approached by several well dressed gentlemen who promptly escorted me to an empty room and seated me in a chair in the center. Beginning to fear I was in trouble, for this looked like something straight out of a grade B thriller, I asked what was going on. They proceeded to interrogate me at length, wanting to know where I had heard the aforementioned information. Well, to make a long story short, I finally convinced them of my innocence, and managed, in a brilliant (if I do say so myself) attempt to get an invitation to their headquarters. Now you understand that I can't tell you who they were or where they took me, but I can reveal to you their quest.

It seems that the federal government has invested significant amounts of money (at least it seemed that way to me) in trying to figure out just this formula. With the aid of several Cray supercomputers and hundreds of researchers, the work goes on to figure out all the variables. Once the hostilities were over I was introduced to the project director, who proceeded to give me a tour of the facilities. The first stop appeared to be, and indeed was, a weather forcasting bureau, with the additional duty of trying to correlate weather patterns to human behavior and traffic flow. After wishing them luck, I was escorted to the next department, whose job was to figure out the mechanical failures of cars and what part they played.

I won't bore you with all the departments we visited, for there were hundreds, but let me just tell you the titles of a few. There was the "Sleep Habits Group" , with committees for studying television influence, seasons, sporting events and more. There was the "Curiosity Factor Group" who looked at events not connected to roads and driving to see what influence they had on traffic flow. There were groups to study accidents, economic indicators, hours of daylight, phases of the moon, divorce rates, childbirth rates, sales of VCR's, ... In fact there were groups to study just about everything.

A little confused I turned to my gracious hostess and said "What do all these things have to do with traffic?" She replied, "When dealing with something as complex as human behavior, which is largely what traffic flow is all about, we have found that what is really needed is a mathematical model for the entire world and all life therein." "In fact," she continued, "Our sponsors hope that once we come up with a working model, they will be able to predict anything about anything else."

I was flabbergasted. These people were actually trying to predict the future mathematically. After a pause, I turned back to her and asked, "When do you think you can do it?" "Off the record, we're having some trouble. This predicting the future stuff is not as easy at it looks." "In fact," she continued, "I personally don't think we can do it. From our observations thus far, people don't always act in a totally predictable way. Every now and then they do something 'just because they felt like it' and we're having a really rough time figuring that one out."

We finally reached the lobby, and she again impressed upon me the need for secrecy, and with that I was escorted to my car. As I drove home I pondered all that I had seen...I took a different route than normal...just because I felt like it. ;)